Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.034947 2.698031 3.596410 4.933025 6.925450e+00 9.877862e+00 14.769939
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.429570 2.172910 3.374657 5.575530 9.794627e+00 1.824216e+01 38.738892
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.017847 1.724195 3.044386 5.946210 1.301413e+01 3.244522e+01 107.400116
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.819863 1.542621 3.104654 7.276893 2.069878e+01 7.656271e+01 528.300970
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.661064 1.363727 3.095720 8.680229 3.280673e+01 2.000708e+02 4926.894167
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.547457 1.229357 3.134123 10.567404 5.527117e+01 6.751178e+02 415146.450736
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.454125 1.098704 3.115161 12.574419 9.380043e+01 3.048176e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.354651 0.902851 2.759331 12.735800 1.274142e+02 1.224874e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.275374 0.728615 2.360447 12.142452 1.573563e+02 5.634679e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.230157 0.638041 2.221468 13.140670 2.456557e+02 2.146385e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.204754 0.599774 2.279448 16.124496 5.148555e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187778 0.582759 2.435106 21.163282 1.411992e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.165064 0.537876 2.441080 25.675046 3.992001e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137483 0.460599 2.193164 25.912080 7.531004e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113760 0.388794 1.917211 24.722260 1.240675e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101244 0.359114 1.892354 28.993794 5.652196e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090067 0.330099 1.846523 33.305468 4.278848e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081420 0.308713 1.839649 39.795651 2.913370e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073558 0.287411 1.813308 46.619126 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063607 0.251336 1.620370 44.577590 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054538 0.216481 1.407991 39.831840 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049059 0.198259 1.335347 42.305530 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046031 0.191721 1.370795 53.163142 NaN NaN NaN